241208 Dialing the investment engine aggression all the way up to 11
DKK INR NOK AND SEK portfolio trades for December 2024
Welcome to the Two Crows Week#2 portfolio picks for December, marking the final round of model portfolio stock picks for 2024. It has certainly been an interesting year…
As we roll into the Christmas period, I am increasingly busy as I’m sure you all are, so I aim to be brief.
Monthly trade commentary
Without trying to anger all the investing Gods, 2024 has been kind1 to the Two Crows Systematic portfolios. Seven of eight portfolios continue to score well against benchmarks and professional investment teams, with our EUR account, ever the laggard.
All in all, our algorithm suggests an uneventful set of trades for December, with only a single sale. (Nearly) all other trades simply add to existing positions, rather than establishing something new.
As a gentle reminder, the INR portfolio is effectively uninvestable for myself as a non-Indian citizen, and likely also for you reading along at home. As such, I use it as something of a “playground” or experimental portfolio, dialing the aggressiveness of the Two Crows Systematic ranking algorithm all the way up to extremes. I allow the INR model parameters to select stocks trading at what might typically be considered to be insane, nose-bleed-price levels.
I will tend to spread invested cash across many smaller positions each month in INR, attempting to capture the massive economic growth momentum of the underlying companies and hopefully ride the wave for long enough that the prices paid will look reasonable in hindsight, while avoiding overconcentration in any single name. With the average INR stock this month featuring a 30% ROIC, 35% Operating Margin and multi-year Revenue per Share growth of 40%, but the average PE ratio currently approaching 80 — eeeek!! —, I expect MANY losers in that portfolio2, hopefully offset by a few, huge, winners. Time will tell.
While the other (read: directly investable) TCS portfolios are more conservative, our INR portfolio serves as an experiment: over the long run, are we best served by conservativeness and insisting on paying only low PS and PE multiples (as much conventional wisdom3 suggests)? Or alternatively, should we be more willing to pay objectively-high prices today, for the chance to own a truly epic business that continues to grow rapidly, far into the distant future4?
With that to mull on, on to this month’s stock selections for the Two Crows Systematic DKK, INR, NOK and SEK “Week#2” portfolios.
Monthly Trades for DKK, INR, NOK and SEK
DKK denominated stocks (500 000 DKK + divs/sales)
BUY CBRAIN.CO - cBrain A/S: 295 shares @ $213
BUY CHEMM.CO - ChemoMetec A/S: 130 shares @ $481.8
BUY GMAB.CO - Genmab A/S: 41 shares @ $1549
BUY NETC.CO - Netcompany Group A/S: 170 shares @ $370
BUY NOVO-B.CO - Novo Nordisk A/S: 80 shares @ $785.5
BUY RILBA.CO - Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S: 55 shares @ $1152
BUY RBREW.CO - Royal Unibrew A/S: 118 shares @ $534.5
BUY SKJE.CO - Skjern Bank A/S: 391 shares @ $160.5
INR denominated stocks (5 000 000 INR + divs + sales)
BUY ANANDRATHI.BO - Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd: 65 shares @ $4307.35
BUY ANGELONE.BO - Angel One Ltd: 85 shares @ $3292.05
BUY AVANTEL.BO - Avantel Ltd: 1630 shares @ $171.6
BUY CNCRD.BO - Concord Control Systems Limite: 155 shares @ $1804.45 BUY EMSLIMITED.BO - EMS Ltd: 313 shares @ $893.95
BUY IRCTC.BO - Indian Railway Catering & Tourism: 337 shares @ $830.8
BUY KFINTECH.BO - KFin Technologies Ltd: 220 shares @ $1271.85
BUY KPITTECH.BO - KPIT Technologies Ltd: 189 shares @ $1482.4
BUY KSOLVES.BO - Ksolves India Ltd: 283 shares @ $989.6
BUY LTTS.BO - L&T Technology Services Ltd: 53 shares @ $5317.65
BUY NATCOPHARM.BO - NATCO Pharma Ltd: 193 shares @ $1450.6
BUY NETWEB.BO - Netweb Technologies India Ltd: 97 shares @ $2895.1
BUY NEWGEN.BO - Newgen Software Technologies: 207 shares @ $1351.65
BUY POLYMED.BO - Poly Medicure Ltd: 99 shares @ $2819.15
BUY PRUDENT.BO - Prudent Corporate Advisory: 94 shares @ $2986.95
BUY SHILCTECH.BO - Shilchar Technologies Ltd: 33 shares @ $8603.35
BUY SGRL.BO - Shree Ganesh Remedies Ltd: 385 shares @ $725.4
BUY VBL.BO - Varun Beverages Ltd: 410 shares @ $644.05
NOK denominated stocks (500 000 NOK + divs/sales)
BUY BRG.OL - Borregaard ASA: 220 shares @ $183.4
BUY BOUV.OL - Bouvet ASA: 569 shares @ $70.8
BUY CAMBI.OL - Cambi ASA: 2751 shares @ $14.65
BUY KIT.OL - Kitron ASA: 1228 shares @ $32.82
BUY MULTI.OL - Multiconsult ASA: 210 shares @ $192
BUY NKR.OL - Nekkar ASA: 3971 shares @ $10.15
BUY NORBT.OL - Norbit ASA: 427 shares @ $94.3
BUY NORCO.OL - NORCONSULT ASA: 958 shares @ $42.05
BUY RANA.OL - Rana Gruber ASA: 530 shares @ $76
BUY REACH.OL - Reach Subsea ASA: 5180 shares @ $7.78
BUY SALM.OL - SalMar ASA: 68 shares @ $589
BUY SMCRT.OL - SmartCraft ASA: 1390 shares @ $29
BUY SVEG.OL - Sparebanken Vest: 308 shares @ $130.7
SEK denominated stocks (500 000 SEK + divs/sales)
BUY BONEX.ST - Bonesupport Holding AB: 162 shares @ $359.2
BUY BTS-B.ST - BTS Group AB: 218 shares @ $267
BUY CAMX.ST - Camurus AB: 106 shares @ $547
BUY FNOX.ST - Fortnox AB: 771 shares @ $75.42
BUY GENI.ST - Generic Sweden AB: 1154 shares @ $50.4
BUY GENO.ST - Genovis AB (publ.): 2331 shares @ $24.95
BUY HMS.ST - HMS Networks AB: 149 shares @ $389.6
BUY INT.ST - Intellego Technologies AB: 1375 shares @ $42.3
BUY IVSO.ST - Invisio AB: 204 shares @ $285.5
BUY LIME.ST - Lime Technologies AB: 167 shares @ $348.5
BUY UPSALE.ST - Upsales Technology AB: 1721 shares @ $33.8
As always, thanks for reading, and please feel free to get in touch if you’re interested in systematic investment and modelling.
thus far, there’s still 3 weeks left!
In the investment-outcome sense. I fully expect that most of these businesses will do well in their operations in future, but the prices our experimental portfolio is willing to pay will in all likelihood prove too extreme to produce great investment results
See Warren Buffett and the value investor crowd for examples
Growth investing being more of a David Gardner / Motley Fool-type approach, whereby you pay up for greatness, and let the winners run, effectively holding on forever and never selling.