241201 Tax loss harvesting or Santa Rally?

Stock picks for AUD EUR JPY and USD

Hi all, and welcome to the final Two Crows Week#1 portfolio picks for 2024.

This marks one year of monthly stock selections, and it has been an interesting ride thus far. Elections, wars, currency swings, AI hype, more crypto bollocks… all manner of dramatic big picture themes and noisy events vying for your attention. Which, come to think of it, is business as usual. And none of which has influenced my Two Crows process.

As we approach the end of financial year for the USA, you’ll likely see stock price declines blamed on “tax loss harvesting”, while stock price increases will inevitably be labelled a “Santa Claus-rally” and explained away as investor comfort now that the US election is over and “the situation is more stable” or some other nonsense. A flurry of headlines suggesting that short term price changes are somehow significant, and worth acting upon.

A Santa Claus … rally?

I want you to go back and read that earlier paragraph again, and ask yourself “which of these events from 2024 really changed the prospects of the stocks I’m invested in, and which news reporting around these events was in any way relevant or helped in making me a better investor”. I bet if you’re honest, the answers will be “none” and also “none”. So for 2025, I challenge you to read less financial news, and care less about events beyond your control. Instead, if you must purchase individual stocks¹, buy those shares of profitable companies, with good returns on capital, growing revenue and earnings per share rapidly. Do this over and over, every paycheck if you have the cash to invest, and try to ignore the daily noise.

Monthly portfolio commentary

No sales, purchases almost entirely made up of adding to existing holdings — our December 2024 Week#1 stock picks are fairly uneventful.

On to this month’s stock selections for the Two Crows Systematic AUD, EUR, JPY and USD “Week#1” portfolios.

Monthly Trades for AUD, EUR, JPY and USD

AUD denominated stocks (50 000 AUD + divs/sales)

• BUY ATP.AX - Atlas Pearls Ltd: 22321 shares @ $0.16

• BUY AHC.AX - Austco Healthcare Ltd: 14286 shares @ $0.25

• BUY BIS.AX - Bisalloy Steel Group Ltd: 947 shares @ $3.77

• BUY HIT.AX - HiTech Group Australia Ltd: 1931 shares @ $1.85

• BUY IRI.AX - Integrated Research Ltd: 6803 shares @ $0.52

• BUY JIN.AX - Jumbo Interactive Ltd: 256 shares @ $13.93

• BUY LOV.AX - Lovisa Holdings Ltd: 122 shares @ $29.22

• BUY LYL.AX - Lycopodium Ltd: 357 shares @ $10.01

• BUY MAD.AX - Mader Group Ltd: 611 shares @ $5.85

• BUY PWH.AX - PWR Holdings Ltd: 428 shares @ $8.34

• BUY SIQ.AX - Smartgroup Corporation Ltd: 451 shares @ $7.92

• BUY SNL.AX - Supply Network Ltd: 112 shares @ $31.9

• BUY VLS.AX - Vita Life Sciences Ltd: 1742 shares @ $2.05

• BUY VYS.AX - Vysarn Ltd: 8026 shares @ $0.44

EUR denominated stocks (50 000 EUR + divs + sales)

• BUY ADYEN.AS - Adyen N.V.: 3 shares @ $1372.4

• BUY ASML.AS - ASML Holding N.V.: 6 shares @ $642.9

• BUY BETS-B.ST - Betsson AB: 297 shares @ $12.46

• BUY CBAV.MC - Clínica Baviera, S.A.: 111 shares @ $33.4

• BUY GOFORE.HE - Gofore Oyj: 161 shares @ $22.95

• BUY HMU.DE - HMS Bergbau AG: 128 shares @ $29

• BUY KRI.AT - Kri-Kri Milk Industry S.A.: 258 shares @ $14.35

• BUY ROVI.MC - Laboratorios Farmaceuticos Rovi: 58 shares @ $63.85

• BUY PHN.MI - Pharmanutra S.p.A.: 67 shares @ $55.5

• BUY PLNW.PA - PLANISWARE PROMESSES: 157 shares @ $23.68

• BUY QTCOM.HE - Qt Group Oyj: 54 shares @ $68.3

• BUY TRI.PA - Trigano S.A.: 31 shares @ $120.8

• BUY UNITED.HE - United Bankers Oyj: 201 shares @ $18.45

JPY denominated stocks (5 000 000 JPY + divs/sales)

• BUY 5032.T - ANYCOLOR Inc.: 166 shares @ $2130

• BUY 4481.T - BASE CO., LTD.: 108 shares @ $3280

• BUY 6532.T - BayCurrent Consulting, Inc.: 66 shares @ $5370

• BUY 2326.T - Digital Arts Inc.: 59 shares @ $6010

• BUY 7148.T - Financial Products Group Co., Ltd.: 119 shares @ $2958

• BUY 4722.T - Future Corporation: 186 shares @ $1899

• BUY 3150.T - gremz,Inc.: 133 shares @ $2654

• BUY 6036.T - KeePer Technical Laboratory Co., Ltd.: 83 shares @ $4235

• BUY 9552.T - M&A Research Institute Holdings Inc.: 171 shares @ $2065

• BUY 7033.T - Management Solutions co.,Ltd.: 199 shares @ $1777

• BUY 4071.T - Plus Alpha Consulting Co.,Ltd.: 220 shares @ $1605

• BUY 6777.T - santec Holdings Corporation: 59 shares @ $6030

• BUY 4431.T - Smaregi, Inc.: 115 shares @ $3075

• BUY 6196.T - Strike Company,Ltd: 93 shares @ $3815

USD denominated stocks (50 000 USD + divs/sales)

• BUY AMAT - Applied Materials, Inc.: 22 shares @ $171.32

• BUY AZO - AutoZone, Inc.: 1 shares @ $3190.1

• BUY CPRX - Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: 172 shares @ $22.34

• BUY FTNT - Fortinet, Inc.: 41 shares @ $94.06

• BUY IRMD - IRadimed Corporation: 72 shares @ $53.58

• BUY KNSL - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.: 7 shares @ $515.45

• BUY KLAC - KLA Corporation: 6 shares @ $632.14

• BUY MEDP - Medpace Holdings, Inc.: 11 shares @ $338.96

• BUY MELI - MercadoLibre, Inc.: 2 shares @ $2044.76

• BUY PAYC - Paycom Software, Inc.: 16 shares @ $234.99

• BUY REGN - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: 5 shares @ $754.87

• BUY RMD - ResMed Inc.: 15 shares @ $249.33

• BUY V - Visa Inc.: 12 shares @ $314.7

As always, thanks for reading, and please feel free to get in touch if you’re interested in systematic investment and modelling.

1. Of course, you should probably just invest in a low-cost index fund or two, and forego the time and mental energy expenditure that is usually required to sift through and select individual stocks worthy of your investment dollars.