241108 Missed a 30% 1-day-jump
DKK INR NOK AND SEK portfolio trades for November 2024
Hi all, and welcome to the Two Crows Week#2 portfolio picks for November 2024, which includes our monthly stock picks for DDK, INR, NOK and SEK currencies.
It goes without saying that this month was expected to be turbulent, with the world eagerly (anxiously?) awaiting the outcome of the USA elections. Depending on your world view, you’re probably traumatized or ecstatic after Trump’s return to the White House. Or maybe you’re like the Two Crows Systematic strategy: ignore what you cannot control, and carry on doing what you always do. In our case: systematically adding to our portfolio every month, purchasing rapidly growing, profitable companies and ideally, holding for the long-term. After all, if your stock portfolio’s success depends on which clown runs the circus, perhaps you have bigger problems.
Monthly trade commentary
There’s a saying that the key to investment success is not found by timing the market (i.e. not by trying to guess when to jump in and out of stocks), but rather, time IN the market (finding something good, committing to it, waiting for success to be realized). Stock share prices often drift around and lack any clear trend or direction, floating up and down for weeks and months at a time. Then a piece of good news can trigger year’s worth of share price gains to be realized in a day1.
Which is great if you’re holding the shares at the time, but not so great if you were planning to buy but had not yet done so! Which was exactly the case this month in our DKK portfolio.
For Two Crows Systematic stock picks, in the case of the Week#2 portfolios my process is to download updated stock price and company financial statement data on the morning of the 8th of each month. I then run the ranking and scoring algorithms over the candidate companies, using that most recently available end-of-day price data (from the 7th, or the previous Friday if the 8th falls on a weekend). This produces the monthly stock picks, and trades made “as at the 8th” are quoted as though I was able to purchase at or around the most recent end of day price. The modelling assumption is that the price today won’t have diverged significantly from the price yesterday, so the stock selections will be valid and and accurate representation of the Two Crows Systematic stock selection process and it’s performance.
This month however, two of our existing DKK holdings, cBrain and ChemoMetec, shot up in price as much as 10% and 30% on the day of the 8th, and we missed out on those great gains.
I feel it would be dishonest and leave me open to criticism to record purchases of these two stocks at the earlier (cheaper) price level seen on the 7th and then immediately record big wins, I instead record a purchase of cBrain at the higher end of its daily price level ($200 SEK instead of $185), and skip the purchase of ChemoMetec entirely as it shot up immediately on market open and I would not have reasonably been able to make a purchase prior to the rapid rise. So I missed out on a 30% return in a day, which stings a bit but is worth it, for the intellectual honestly.
Now, on to this month’s stock selections for the Two Crows Systematic DKK, INR, NOK and SEK “Week#2” portfolios.
Monthly Trades for DKK, INR, NOK and SEK
DKK denominated stocks (500 000 DKK + divs/sales)
BUY AOJ-B.CO - Brødrene A & O Johansen A/S: 61 shares @ $83.5
BUY CBRAIN.CO - cBrain A/S: 26 shares @ $200
BUY DEMANT.CO - Demant A/S: 20 shares @ $255.2
BUY GMAB.CO - Genmab A/S: 3 shares @ $1589.5
BUY NETC.CO - Netcompany Group A/S: 16 shares @ $325.8
BUY NTG.CO - NTG Nordic Transport Group A/S: 18 shares @ $288.5
BUY RILBA.CO - Ringkjøbing Landbobank A/S: 4 shares @ $1168
BUY SMSMED.CO - Scandinavian Medical Solutions: 823 shares @ $6.2
BUY SKJE.CO - Skjern Bank A/S: 31 shares @ $165
BUY SYDB.CO - Sydbank A/S: 15 shares @ $349.6
INR denominated stocks (5 000 000 INR + divs + sales)
BUY ADVAIT.BO - Advait Infratech Ltd: 158 shares @ $1786.65
BUY ANANDRATHI.BO - Anand Rathi Wealth Ltd: 71 shares @ $3960.75
BUY ARIHANTCAP.NS - Arihant Capital Markets: 2553 shares @ $110.26
BUY AVANTEL.BO - Avantel Ltd: 1646 shares @ $171
BUY CNCRD.BO - Concord Control Systems Limite: 167 shares @ $1690
BUY DSSL.BO - Dynacons Systems & Solutions: 213 shares @ $1321.95
BUY EMSLIMITED.BO - EMS Ltd: 347 shares @ $810.95
BUY GEOJITFSL.BO - Geojit Financial Services: 2180 shares @ $129.15
BUY IRCTC.BO - Indian Railway Catering & Tourism: 334 shares @ $843.85
BUY KPITTECH.BO - KPIT Technologies Ltd: 195 shares @ $1442.15
BUY KSOLVES.BO - Ksolves India Ltd: 283 shares @ $994.1
BUY NATCOPHARM.BO - NATCO Pharma Ltd: 197 shares @ $1429.45
BUY NETWEB.BO - Netweb Technologies India: 99 shares @ $2833.65
BUY NEWGEN.BO - Newgen Software Technologies: 218 shares @ $1291.1
BUY POLYMED.BO - Poly Medicure Ltd: 99 shares @ $2849.25
BUY PRUDENT.BO - Prudent Corporate Advisory Services: 96 shares @ $2940.3
BUY SGRL.BO - Shree Ganesh Remedies Ltd: 353 shares @ $797.1
BUY VBL.BO - Varun Beverages Ltd: 472 shares @ $596.45
NOK denominated stocks (500 000 NOK + divs/sales)
BUY BRG.OL - Borregaard ASA: 278 shares @ $181.4
BUY BOUV.OL - Bouvet ASA: 729 shares @ $69.1
BUY DOFG.OL - DOF Group ASA: 560 shares @ $89.9
BUY EPR.OL - Europris ASA: 749 shares @ $67.3
BUY MULTI.OL - Multiconsult ASA: 260 shares @ $193.5
BUY NKR.OL - Nekkar ASA: 4730 shares @ $10.65
BUY NORCO.OL - NORCONSULT ASA: 1298 shares @ $38.8
BUY SALM.OL - SalMar ASA: 93 shares @ $540
BUY SMCRT.OL - SmartCraft ASA: 1696 shares @ $29.7
BUY SVEG.OL - Sparebanken Vest: 366 shares @ $137.52
SEK denominated stocks (500 000 SEK + divs/sales)
BUY BONEX.ST - Bonesupport Holding AB: 190 shares @ $348.2
BUY BTS-B.ST - BTS Group AB: 228 shares @ $290
BUY CAMX.ST - Camurus AB: 105 shares @ $631
BUY FNOX.ST - Fortnox AB: 986 shares @ $67.12
BUY INVE-B.ST - Investor AB: 216 shares @ $305.9
BUY LIME.ST - Lime Technologies AB: 190 shares @ $347.5
BUY NOTE.ST - NOTE AB: 490 shares @ $135.2
BUY SDIP-B.ST - Sdiptech AB: 258 shares @ $256.2
BUY SECT-B.ST - Sectra AB: 235 shares @ $281.6
BUY TFBANK.ST - TF Bank AB: 209 shares @ $317
As always, thanks for reading, and please feel free to get in touch if you’re interested in systematic investment and modelling.
Of course, the reverse is also true in the case of bad news